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News about
Jon for friends, colleagues, storm chasers, and those interested:
* 11/24/09 - JON TO
SERVE AS ASSOCIATE EDITOR FOR Weather & Forecasting
I've been asked to be an
Associate Editor for the AMS journal Weather & Forecasting in 2010.
I'll be reviewing papers in a more "official" capacity than in the past,
and I appreciate editor Bill Gallus asking me to serve.
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* 10/16/09 -
"TORNADO ROAD" TO AIR ON THE WEATHER CHANNEL.
There's been rumors and stories circulating
for the last month that a storm chasing show (shelved by NBC) my wife Shawna and I were
involved with will finally air on The Weather Channel. Well, TWC is advertising now the
first 3 episodes of "Tornado Road" will indeed air on Sunday October 18 in
sequence at 7 pm, 8 pm, and 9 pm CDT opposite "Storm Chasers" on the Discovery
Channel. Shawna and I are supposed to be in the first 2 episodes, including material
about the June 11, 2008 tornado that killed several Boy Scouts near Omaha, and (in a much
lighter vein) our wedding with some storm chasing friends. Enjoy! And, forever
at the mercy of the editors, please don't laugh too hard if we look silly :-). See
my blog here for additional air date
information.
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* 9/20/09 - NEW PAPER
IN Weather & Forecasting, AUGUST 2009 ISSUE.
A "Reply" paper I wrote (in full PDF form here) as a
response to comments by Roger Edwards and Rich Thompson was published in the latest issue
of Weather & Forecasting journal (Aug 2009).
The case study concerns a violent tornado in North Dakota on July 18, 2004, from an
original paper published in 2007. Additional discussion about the paper is on my
blog here.
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* 8/17/09 - UPDATED
MATERIAL ON 700 mb TEMPERATURES AND ESTIMATING THE "CAP".
I put together a new case
study (10 July 2009) showing how 700 mb temperatures can be helpful in estimating the
location of an inhibiting capping inversion:
10 July 2009 "cap"
case study in the central plains
I've also updated my original material that is an informal reference about using 700 mb
temperatures as a first guess estimate of the "cap":
Using 700 mb temperatures as an
estimation of the "cap" in the central plains
There are several caveats given, including the fact that the 700 mb temperature values
often don't work well in the High Plains and westward due to surface heating over elevated
terrain in the warm season, and also upslope. Although only a rough guide, the table
and information with this material can be useful in raising awareness about possible
"cap busts" when forecasting. You can also find these links on my Case
Studies and Briefs page, via the link at the top of this page.
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* 7/26/09 - NEW PAPERS
BY DAVIES AND FISCHER PUBLISHED ONLINE IN NWA ELECTRONIC JOURNAL.
Two new peer-reviewed papers
about nighttime tornado environments written by Andy Fischer (AWC in Kansas City) and me have been published online in
National Weather Association Electronic Journal of Operation Meteorology (NWA EJOM):
Environmental Characteristics Associated with
Nighttime Tornadoes by:
Jonathan M. Davies and Anthony Fischer
Significant Nighttime Tornadoes in the Plains
Associated with Relatively Stable Low-Level Conditions by: Anthony Fischer and Jonathan M. Davies
There's some interesting things we
found with nighttime tornado environments, including much larger storm-relative helicity
(SRH), and significant differences in CAPE and CIN between the Plains and the southeastern
United States. In the second paper, we looked specifically at a couple of
significant nighttime tornado events in Kansas in 2008 that were associated with unusually
large CIN and low-level stability. I hope that meteorologists and students find these
useful!
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* 6/22/09 - DAVIES-FISCHER PAPERS ABOUT
NIGHTTIME TORNADO SETTINGS TO BE PUBLISHED ONLINE IN NWA ELECTRONIC JOURNAL.
Final submissions of 2 papers
I wrote in collaboration with Andy Fischer that look at nighttime tornado environments (a
hot topic given the number of significant nighttime tornadoes in the Plains during
2007-2008) have been accepted, and will be online soon. Stay tuned for the links.
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* 2/17/09 - STORM
CHASERS (INCLUDING JON) FEATURED ON THE WEATHER CHANNEL'S WEB SITE.
I'm among several storm chasers being featured currently on
The Weather Channel's web site. See: http://www.weather.com/tv/programs/Storm-Chasers.html.
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* 1/30/09 - TALKS AT 2009 DENVER CHASER CONVENTION 2/14/09
and 2/15/09.
I will be doing 2 talks at the Denver convention this year: "Thoughts
and Research on Nighttime Tornadoes and Rain-wrapped Tornadoes", and "A Review
of Some Recent Tornado Settings from a Chase Forecast Perspective". There will
several excellent speakers, including Rich Thompson of SPC talking about tornado
forecasting, Dr. Howie Bluestein on VORTEX-II, and also Dr. Steve Lyons and Dr. Greg
Forbes from The Weather Channel. In addition, my wife Shawna will be doing what I
think is a very important and down-to-earth talk for chasers, "Beyond the Storm -
Chasers Helping with Communities and First Response". See: http://chaserconvention.com.
I understand there may be live online streaming of convention talks this year. So I hope you can make it to Denver, or at least watch online.
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* 12/28/08 - DAMANGING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WINDS IN SOUTH KANSAS CITY METRO AREA 12/27/08.
I put a post on my blog about an interesting setup for severe weather in KC on
the early morning of 12/27/08, unusual for a couple days after Christmas:
http://davieswx.blogspot.com/2008/12/damaging-thunderstorm-winds-in-south.html
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* 11/21/08 - STORM CHASING SERIES
PUSHED BACK IN TV SCHEDULE.
The network storm chasing series I mentioned a while back, with Shawna and me in
a couple episodes, has been pushed back from this fall to sometime in early 2009, maybe as
late as early spring. Even though we both figure we'll look like idiots :-), FWIW,
I'll post something when I know an air date.
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* 10/22/08 - JON'S NEW SEVERE STORMS CONFERENCE PAPER ONLINE.
I won't be able to go to the 24th Conference on Severe Local Storms in Savannah,
Georgia later this month. But I have submitted a paper for the online preprint,
titled "Three Strong Tornadoes in 2008 associated with Boundary Intersections and
Narrow Instability Axes near 700-mb Lows". It is now online in final form HERE.
The paper focuses on 3 strong tornado events that were difficult to forecast in 2008. These had some features and ingredients that were similar to so-called "cold-core" events, but probably wouldn't be considered as such using a rigid definition. The May 22 Windsor, Colorado tornado setting is included.
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* 10/5/08 - HIGH PLAINS
CONFERENCE PRESENTATION NOW ONLINE.
As I mentioned in an earlier news post, Andy Fischer (of NOAA/AWC) and I submitted a paper
to the 12th Annual High Plains Conference on Sept. 4-5, "Significant Nighttime
Tornadoes in 2008 Associated with Relatively Stable Low-level Conditions".
Andy's presentation is now online HERE.
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* 9/30/08 - JON & SHAWNA FEATURED
ON STORM CHASING SERIES.
My wife Shawna and I will be featured on a network series about storm chasing due
to air this fall. More details will be posted as we learn more about broadcast
dates. Stay tuned!
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* 9/14/08 - KANSAS CITY AREA TORNADOES
ON 9/12/08.
I put a post about the KC area tornadoes last Friday on my blog, with a few weather
graphics and some brief analysis. Check it out at: http://davieswx.blogspot.com/2008/09/tornadoes-on-91208-near-kansas-city.html
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* 9/5/08 - PAPER AT HIGH PLAINS
CONFERENCE.
Andy Fischer of NOAA/AWC Kansas City and I submitted a paper to the 12th Annual High
Plains Conference (Hays, Kansas Sept. 4-5) titled, "Significant Nighttime Tornadoes
in 2008 Associated with Relatively Stable Low-level Conditions". I could not
attend, so Andy presented the paper and did 90% of the work with this project. The
presentation focused on the setting and environment with the Beloit-Jewell-Belleville
tornadic supercell in northern Kansas on 29 May 2008, and the Salina-Chapman-Manhattan
supercell in central/northern Kansas on 11 June 2008. Both storms were associated
with unusually large CIN for such intense tornadoes. Andy showed that the RUC model
profiles in both of these cases were not the best at representing the environments,
particularly the May 29 case, when CIN was probably about 1/2 to 2/3rd that suggested by
the RUC model. Nevertheless, CIN from lowest 100-mb mixed-layer lifted parcels was
still large for both events, probably between -120 and -170 J/kg, which seems very large
for significant tornadoes based on my database study from a 2004 paper in Weather and
Forecasting.
What we found was that 0-1 km storm-relative helicity (SRH) was also unusually large (500-800 m2/s2) for these two supercell tornado events, particularly on 29 May. When combined with moderate total CAPE (at least 2000 J/kg) and strong deep shear (at least 55-60 kts), it appears that the environments for these events supported and enhanced intense mesocyclones to the extent that they were able to overcome the stable near-ground layer to generate tornadoes. The paper suggests that these combined ingredients (unusually large SRH, strong deep shear, at least moderate CAPE) can definitely support tornadoes in large CIN warm sector environments, and should be noted carefully by meteorologists, even when CIN suggests that an environment is not strongly surface-based. I'll try to post some material on the two events in my Case Studies section in the future.
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Home
News
Case Studies & Briefs
Papers & Publications
Selected
Chases Photos
About Jon
"Storm Chasers!" book for
kids (off site) Jon's Blog (off site)